花旗:壽險股短線反彈 貨幣政策放寬有利銀行股長期表現   鉅亨網2008 / 11 / 10 

        全球金融風暴已近尾聲,加上江陳會、MOU、央行降息等利多消息一波接著一波,金融股近期股價表現亮眼,也讓外資圈開始重新評估金融股的長線投資價值。花旗環球證券金融產業分析師鄭溫煌指出,壽險股短線可望維持跌深反彈走勢,而央行寬鬆的貨幣政策以及政府對金融政策的改革將有利銀行股長期的表現。

        鄭溫煌表示,江陳會後兩岸題材仍將持續激勵金融股股價,其中富邦金透過香港富邦銀行持有廈門商業銀行 20%的股權,可望搶得前進大陸銀行業的頭香,而未來還將看到更多台灣金融業以類似的模式透過香港進軍大陸。

        壽險股方面,由於之前曝險部位過高,導致違約風險大幅提升;好在全球金融風暴的暴風圈已過,鄭溫煌認為,若全球信貸市場能維持穩定狀態,則壽險股短期內將延續熊市反彈行情。而銀行股受惠於政府金融制度的改革以及央行寬鬆的貨幣政策,長期表現也很值得期待

        鄭溫煌認為,金融股股價先前因市場不分青紅皂白的賣壓而一路下滑,而現在出現反彈跡象時,投資人就可以好好觀察尋找良好標的佈局。就花旗銀行私下的訪談消息指出,中小型金融機構較難受惠於政策利多,大型金融機構較值得逢低買進,其中第一金是最具防禦性的個股,而元大金因資本水位足夠、又沒有過度海外曝險,因此將成為台股反彈走勢中的代表性個股。 







 

 

        富邦金併ING 花旗叫好 2008-10-22 工商時報 

        花旗環球證券台灣金融產業分析師鄭溫煌也看好富邦金收購條件,重申「買進」評等,目標價36元。 



        沒水準的台客版股市寓言 

        從前有一個到處都是猴子地方,一名男子出現向村民宣布,他將以每隻十元的價錢購買猴子。村民瞭解附近有很多猴子,他們走進森林開始抓猴子。

         該名男子花了數千美元購買每隻十塊錢的猴子,猴子數量開始減少,村民們越來越難抓到,因此他們不再熱衷了。 

        該名男子隨後宣布,他將出價每隻猴子 20 美元。這又讓村民們重新開始努力抓猴子。但很快供應量更為減少,他們幾乎很難再抓到了,因此人們開始回到自己的農場,淡忘了抓猴子這件事。

        該名男子增加價格到每隻 25 美元,但是猴子的供應變得更稀少,再怎麼努力都很難見到一隻猴子,更別談抓猴子了。 該名男子現在宣布,每隻猴子他出價 50 美元!

        然而從這時候他離開了,去城裡辦一些事務,現在他的助手代表他繼續從事購買猴子的業務。 這名男子離開後,助理告訴村民,瞧瞧該名男子購買在大籠子裡的這些猴子,我每隻用 35 美元賣給你們,等該名男子從城裡回來,你們可以將它們每隻 50 美元賣給他。 

       村民們匯集了所有的積蓄,購買了全部的猴子。 他們從此再也沒有見到這名男子和他的助理了。 

       村子裡又再次變成到處都是猴子的地方。 現在你該更進一步了解,股票市場是如何運作的了。

 
        有水準的外資版

      Once upon a time in a place overrun with monkeys, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them.

       The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, they became harder to catch, so the villagers stopped their effort. 

       The man then announced that he would now pay $20 for each one. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. But soon the supply diminished even further and they were ever harder to catch, so people started going back to their farms and forgot about monkey catching. 

       The man increased his price to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so sparse that it was an effort to even see a monkey, much less catch one. 

       The man now announced that he would buy monkeys for $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf. 

       While the man was away the assistant told the villagers. 'Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has bought. I will sell them to you at $35 each and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.' 

        The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys. 

        They never saw the man nor his assistant again and once again there were monkeys everywhere. 

       Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.

       註:故事來源為網路流傳,與花旗環球證券無關
       
      最後,這個故事給我們的啟示是

      重申猴子的「買進」評等

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